Keywords: soil-structure interaction, 2D3D method, excavation, convergence measurements, Bayesian update, likelihood function, Markov chain Monte Carlo method.

Several advances in the modeling of soil-structure interaction in the light of tunnel excavation are discussed. The theoretical formulation as well as numerical implementation are presented such as to meet the following requirements: simplicity, reliability and practical applicability to make the resulting software product available for a direct use on the construction site. To that end a recently introduced 2D3D modeling of tunnel excavation incorporating the in-situ measurements and two-dimensional computational framework of an underground structure is effectively combined with a fully three-dimensional (3D) beam-like representation of a typical urban structure made of masonry or precast concrete. Assuming this model provides an "exact solution" we propose a new reduced model of an underground structure to be yet considerably more efficient since based only on a limited number of model parameters and despite of that providing useful results as it can easily be calibrated against the 2D3D model such as to match the underground settlement as close as possible to reality. The efficiency of the latter model is subsequently exploited in the stochastic analysis of the excavation process utilizing the elements of Bayesian statistical methods in improving the distributions of model parameters. While details of the calibration step of the reduced model are provided, the stochastic analysis is addressed in this paper only methodologically.

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