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Civil-Comp Proceedings
ISSN 1759-3433 CCP: 106
PROCEEDINGS OF THE TWELFTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COMPUTATIONAL STRUCTURES TECHNOLOGY Edited by:
Paper 150
A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach for the Estimation of Corrosion in Reinforced Concrete Structures S.A. Faroz, N.N. Pujari and S. Ghosh
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India S.A. Faroz, N.N. Pujari, S. Ghosh, "A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach for the Estimation of Corrosion in Reinforced Concrete Structures", in , (Editors), "Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Computational Structures Technology", Civil-Comp Press, Stirlingshire, UK, Paper 150, 2014. doi:10.4203/ccp.106.150
Keywords: corrosion, reinforced concrete, steel loss, Bayesian updating, MCMC, Markov chain..
Summary
Reinforced concrete structures degrade primarily as a result of corrosion-induced
damage, mostly as a consequence of the loss of steel rebar volume. Therefore, the
prediction of time-varying damage resulting from corrosion is important in assessing
the residual life of a structure and making decisions on maintenance or repair. Existing
models of prediction fail to provide realistic estimates of the steel loss over time. This
paper presents a methodology for a probabilistic evaluation of the time-dependent corrosion
loss in rebars. A Bayesian updating approach combined with a Markov Chain
Monte Carlo simulation is adopted here. This gives the advantage of modelling the
corrosion parameters based on measured data combined with some 'prior' or existing
understanding of these parameters. Experimental results are compiled from the reported
literature and the proposed probabilistic model is validated against these data
to show its effectiveness, over the existing models. Sensitivity of the results to critical
uncertainty parameters is presented.
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