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C. Scarth, P. Sartor, J.E. Cooper, G.H.C. Silva, "Uncertainty in the Aeroelastic Stability of Composite Wings using Bayesian Emulators", in , (Editors), "Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Computational Structures Technology", Civil-Comp Press, Stirlingshire, UK, Paper 148, 2014. doi:10.4203/ccp.106.148

Keywords: aeroelasticity, composite wing, uncertainty quantification, Bayesian emulator..

Summary

An approach is presented, in this paper, for modelling the effects of uncertain composite material properties based upon the aeroelastic stability of a composite wing. The wing is idealised as a thin-walled beam which incorporates the effects of transverse shear. A Gaussian process is fitted to model outputs using Bayesian inference, and used as an emulator for the aeroelastic model allowing uncertainty to be quantified at considerably reduced computational effort. The critical instability speed is non-smooth and discontinuous; as such, multiple Gaussian processes are fitted to different regions of the input variable space. Uncertainties are introduced to the ply orientations and moduli of the top and bottom flanges of the beam and laminate stiffness terms are used as input variables in order to reduce the number of emulator inputs to a manageable size. Probability density functions are determined for a number of example stacking sequence configurations using Monte Carlo simulation of the emulator. An order of two magnitude reduction in the number of model runs is achieved for each of the example configurations.

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Front Page Browse CCP CSETS CTR IJRT Other Authors Search Purchase Guide FAQ Contact us	Civil-Comp Proceedings ISSN 1759-3433 CCP: 106 PROCEEDINGS OF THE TWELFTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COMPUTATIONAL STRUCTURES TECHNOLOGY Edited by: Paper 148 Uncertainty in the Aeroelastic Stability of Composite Wings using Bayesian Emulators C. Scarth¹, P. Sartor¹, J.E. Cooper¹ and G.H.C. Silva² ¹Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Bristol, United Kingdom ²Embraer S.A., São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil doi:10.4203/ccp.106.148 purchase the full-text of this paper Full Bibliographic Reference for this paper C. Scarth, P. Sartor, J.E. Cooper, G.H.C. Silva, "Uncertainty in the Aeroelastic Stability of Composite Wings using Bayesian Emulators", in , (Editors), "Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Computational Structures Technology", Civil-Comp Press, Stirlingshire, UK, Paper 148, 2014. doi:10.4203/ccp.106.148 Keywords: aeroelasticity, composite wing, uncertainty quantification, Bayesian emulator.. Summary An approach is presented, in this paper, for modelling the effects of uncertain composite material properties based upon the aeroelastic stability of a composite wing. The wing is idealised as a thin-walled beam which incorporates the effects of transverse shear. A Gaussian process is fitted to model outputs using Bayesian inference, and used as an emulator for the aeroelastic model allowing uncertainty to be quantified at considerably reduced computational effort. The critical instability speed is non-smooth and discontinuous; as such, multiple Gaussian processes are fitted to different regions of the input variable space. Uncertainties are introduced to the ply orientations and moduli of the top and bottom flanges of the beam and laminate stiffness terms are used as input variables in order to reduce the number of emulator inputs to a manageable size. Probability density functions are determined for a number of example stacking sequence configurations using Monte Carlo simulation of the emulator. An order of two magnitude reduction in the number of model runs is achieved for each of the example configurations. purchase the full-text of this paper (price £20) go to the previous paper go to the next paper return to the table of contents return to the book description purchase this book (price £65 +P&P)
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