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Keywords: seismic hazard, probability density function, statistical data elaboration, historical earthquakes.

Summary

One can look at the different parameters which characterize an earthquake from a macroscopic point of view as independent random variables. So the construction of a stochastic field which expresses the seismic waves' propagation on the territory can been developed only by the elaboration of the fundamental seismic macroparameters, as the geographical co-ordinates of the epicenter and of the recording stations, the magnitude value, the epicentral intensity and the intensity at the sites. Assuming that the seismic intensity at any site can be expressed by means of an exponential function of the epicentral distance, with the exponential coefficient $\tilde\theta(\alpha)$ representing the random character of the function, the probabilistic parameters of the transmission law from the historic epicenter to the site can be calibrated by means of the interpolation of the seismic waves' propagation along the different directions between the historical epicenters and the sites. The total interpolation of the stochastic fields solved for different historical earthquakes gives the intensity probability function for every site on the territory.

Analogously by elaborating statistically all recorded data of historical earthquakes occurred in an area the hazard function at the site can be evaluated too. So, some of the fundamental seismic parameters as the peak intensity, the epicentral and site's intensity, the time duration of the earthquake can be expressed by means of simple functions which can give the information about, for example, the epicentral location, the time duration, the magnitude value, the intensity distribution on the territory, etc., for an expected earthquake if one knows the macroseismic parameters of an occurred earthquake in an area.

In the final part of the paper a numerical application based on a series of ground earthquakes occurred in the Central-Italian area have been made and the probability function of the localization of the seismic epicentre for an earthquake which produces different values of the intensity at the site (for example Naples, Italy) has been solved.

References

1: Baratta, A., "Dynamics of a Single-Degree-of-Freedom System with a Unilateral Obstacle", in Structural Safety, N.8, pp. 181-194, 1990.
2: Baratta A., Corbi I., "Statistical attenuation law for historical earthquakes", Proc. of the 15th Nordic Seminar on Computational Mechanics, 18-23.10.2002, Aalborg, Danimarca, 2002.
3: Boschi, E., Ferrari, G., Gasperini, P., Guidoboni, E., Smriglio, G., Valensise, G., "Catalogo dei forti terremoti in Italia dal 461 a.C. al 1980", ING-SGA, 970 pp., Bologna, 1995.
4: CNR., "Atlante delle mappe isosismiche dei terremoti italiani", Progetto Finalizzato di Geodinamica CNR, pp. 1-164, Roma, Italia, 1985.
5: Romeo, R., Pugliese, A., "A global earthquake hazard assessment of Italy", ECEE '98, Paris, 1998.

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Front Page Browse CCP CSETS CTR IJRT Other Authors Search Purchase Guide FAQ Contact us	Civil-Comp Proceedings ISSN 1759-3433 CCP: 77 PROCEEDINGS OF THE NINTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CIVIL AND STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING COMPUTING Edited by: B.H.V. Topping Paper 109 Probabilistic Model for Seismogenetic Areas in Seismic Risk Analyses A. Baratta and I. Corbi Department of "Scienza delle Costruzioni", University of Naples "Federico II", Italy doi:10.4203/ccp.77.109 purchase the full-text of this paper Full Bibliographic Reference for this paper A. Baratta, I. Corbi, "Probabilistic Model for Seismogenetic Areas in Seismic Risk Analyses", in B.H.V. Topping, (Editor), "Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Civil and Structural Engineering Computing", Civil-Comp Press, Stirlingshire, UK, Paper 109, 2003. doi:10.4203/ccp.77.109 Keywords: seismic hazard, probability density function, statistical data elaboration, historical earthquakes. Summary One can look at the different parameters which characterize an earthquake from a macroscopic point of view as independent random variables. So the construction of a stochastic field which expresses the seismic waves' propagation on the territory can been developed only by the elaboration of the fundamental seismic macroparameters, as the geographical co-ordinates of the epicenter and of the recording stations, the magnitude value, the epicentral intensity and the intensity at the sites. Assuming that the seismic intensity at any site can be expressed by means of an exponential function of the epicentral distance, with the exponential coefficient $\tilde\theta(\alpha)$ representing the random character of the function, the probabilistic parameters of the transmission law from the historic epicenter to the site can be calibrated by means of the interpolation of the seismic waves' propagation along the different directions between the historical epicenters and the sites. The total interpolation of the stochastic fields solved for different historical earthquakes gives the intensity probability function for every site on the territory. Analogously by elaborating statistically all recorded data of historical earthquakes occurred in an area the hazard function at the site can be evaluated too. So, some of the fundamental seismic parameters as the peak intensity, the epicentral and site's intensity, the time duration of the earthquake can be expressed by means of simple functions which can give the information about, for example, the epicentral location, the time duration, the magnitude value, the intensity distribution on the territory, etc., for an expected earthquake if one knows the macroseismic parameters of an occurred earthquake in an area. In the final part of the paper a numerical application based on a series of ground earthquakes occurred in the Central-Italian area have been made and the probability function of the localization of the seismic epicentre for an earthquake which produces different values of the intensity at the site (for example Naples, Italy) has been solved. References 1 Baratta, A., "Dynamics of a Single-Degree-of-Freedom System with a Unilateral Obstacle", in Structural Safety, N.8, pp. 181-194, 1990. 2 Baratta A., Corbi I., "Statistical attenuation law for historical earthquakes", Proc. of the 15th Nordic Seminar on Computational Mechanics, 18-23.10.2002, Aalborg, Danimarca, 2002. 3 Boschi, E., Ferrari, G., Gasperini, P., Guidoboni, E., Smriglio, G., Valensise, G., "Catalogo dei forti terremoti in Italia dal 461 a.C. al 1980", ING-SGA, 970 pp., Bologna, 1995. 4 CNR., "Atlante delle mappe isosismiche dei terremoti italiani", Progetto Finalizzato di Geodinamica CNR, pp. 1-164, Roma, Italia, 1985. 5 Romeo, R., Pugliese, A., "A global earthquake hazard assessment of Italy", ECEE '98, Paris, 1998. purchase the full-text of this paper (price £20) go to the previous paper go to the next paper return to the table of contents return to the book description purchase this book (price £123 +P&P)
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