Keywords: European railway system, comprehensive assessment, model framework, mode choice, KPI, customer experience..

Within the Shift2Rail project IMPACT-2 a model framework is developed to assess the impact of railway innovations on modal split. The railway innovations are evaluated in a KPI model and a customer experience model. Effects on Life-Cycle- Cost (LCC), Capacity and Reliability & Punctuality as well as customer satisfaction improvements in Booking & Ticketing, Passenger Information and Comfort & Services are evaluated in these models. Results of both models are used within a mode choice model to assess the effects of technical solutions on the modal share of railway for two use cases: High Speed and Regional rail traffic in Europe. Through the development of Multinomial Logit models the number of passengers per mode per hour during the morning peak can be calculated while considering passenger valuations of service variables as well as supply constraints. An optimisation model is introduced to reflect the influence from changes in LCC on profit maximisation for high speed rail and social welfare for regional rail transport. The LCC change for the optimisation model is provided through the KPI model. For the service variables, inputs from the KPI and customer experience model are used, namely a reduction in delay minutes and an increased frequency from the KPI model and an increase in customer satisfaction variables from the customer experience model. Sensitivity analyses were carried out using Swedish value of time. The results indicate that customer experience is more important for High Speed traffic than for Regional while for Regional an increase of frequency in peak hour shows a considerable effect. Further it has been found that a reduction of operating cost does not have a large direct impact on the modal split. As the results are overall in line with results from desktop research, it can be assumed that the results of the developed model framework are solid. To further stabilise and improve the results, the experts of IMPACT-2 will especially work on stabilisation of the data input for the model framework. Once the data of all models are stabilised, the results will give a good indication on how technical innovations developed within Shift2Rail will impact the actual shift to rail.

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