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Civil-Comp Proceedings
ISSN 1759-3433
CCP: 110
PROCEEDINGS OF THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON RAILWAY TECHNOLOGY: RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
Edited by: J. Pombo
Paper 212

Improving the Resilience of Guided Transport Systems for Natural Risks

M. Gonzva1,2, B. Barroca2, P.-A. Zitt3, P.-E. Gautier1 and Y. Diab2,4

1Innovation Department, SYSTRA, Paris, France
2Lab'Urba Laboratory, Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée University, Champs-sur-Marne, France
3Analysis and Applied Mathematics Laboratory, Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée University, Champs-sur-Marne, France
4School of Engineering of the City of Paris, France

Full Bibliographic Reference for this paper
M. Gonzva, B. Barroca, P.-A. Zitt, P.-E. Gautier, Y. Diab, "Improving the Resilience of Guided Transport Systems for Natural Risks", in J. Pombo, (Editor), "Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Railway Technology: Research, Development and Maintenance", Civil-Comp Press, Stirlingshire, UK, Paper 212, 2016. doi:10.4203/ccp.110.212
Keywords: rail transport system, resilience, flood hazard, dependability methods, cascading effect, Bayesian probabilistic networks.

Summary
This paper provides the construction of a qualitative and systemic methodology to assess the resilience of rail transport systems against natural hazards. To illustrate the capabilities of the methodology, it is applied for the flood hazard. The resilience of rail transport systems is analysed through the failure mechanisms to which they are subjected under flood conditions. These mechanisms lead to numerous, complex failure scenarios and modelling these scenarios enables the identification the components in the system that are successively damaged as a result of a disruption. The first part presents the construction of the methodology. The second part proposes a perspective of the methodology by shifting from a qualitative to a quantitative approach by using a probabilistic framework based on Bayesian networks. The choice of Bayesian networks, the construction of the quantitative model and its capabilities are demonstrated.

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