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Civil-Comp Proceedings
ISSN 1759-3433
CCP: 9/10
PROCEEDINGS OF THE FOURTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CIVIL AND STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING COMPUTING
Edited by: B.H.V. Topping
Paper XIX.3

A Time Series Model for Daily Traffic Volume Forecasting

H. Kopanezou* and Th. Trivellas+

*Hellenic Ministry of Public Works, Athens, Greece
+Democritus University of Thrace, Greece

Full Bibliographic Reference for this paper
H. Kopanezou, Th. Trivellas, "A Time Series Model for Daily Traffic Volume Forecasting", in B.H.V. Topping, (Editor), "Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Civil and Structural Engineering Computing", Civil-Comp Press, Edinburgh, UK, pp 295-300, 1989. doi:10.4203/ccp.9.19.3
Abstract
This paper presents a time series model for daily traffic volume forecasting in rural highways. The analysis considers the characteristics of traffic variation patterns during the calendar year, i .e. seasonal and weekly periodical variations, as well as sudden changes - shocks - occurring during predictable days, e.g. Easter Holidays, Carnival.

A data set containing daily traffic volumes for the period 15/1/1985 - 31/12/1985 from a permanent count station was used to calibrate the model. The resulting model was tested in forecasting daily volumes for the time interval 1/1/1986 - 30/4/1986. Compared with the respective actual data, the results indicate that time series techniques are effective tools in developing highly accurate and inexpensive short term forecasts.

The non-linear least squares routines of statistical package RATS (Version 3.0) were used after suitable adjustments, with excellent results in relation to calculation speed and accuracy.

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