This paper develops a probabilistic analysis framework incorporating high performance composite design methodologies to predict the reliability of composite structures. The method combines finite element analysis, fatigue failure modeling and first order reliability analysis to achieve this objective. The methodology is demonstrated on a composite helicopter rotor hub test specimen with thick, thin, and tapered regions. The specimen is subjected to a centrifugal load and oscillatory bending loads. The failure mechanism observed for this type of fatigue loading is an initial tension crack that is followed by internal delamination at the thick to taper transition where internal ply drop-offs occur. The proposed method predicts the probability of delamination onset on such rotor hubs. This effort has the potential for application to the types of engineering tasks that are required for the development of new rotorcraft using modem composite materials and technologies.

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